As we pass into another week of a new normal and a new world, where information comes to light and more stories and conversations occur which affect our views and our view of what comes next.
As the COVID-19 situation becomes even more of a hyperobject ,all of us have a different view and a different slant on the situation as it unfolds.
Mostly, this is influenced by our own fears and anxieties about what will happen next but in the past 10 days or so it has become quite clear to me that there are several ‘camps’ of people in Dentistry (and probably in every other industry) who have different interests and different fears:
1) The current crop of Dental Foundation Trainees (previously Vocational Trainees) there are about 1,000 of these guys training at the present time and their Clinical activity has ceased.
They're really not sure what’s going to happen next and the world that they enter after the summer will be entirely different from the one that they bought into.
As practice owners are likely to shed associate’s in a cash grab to keep more income for themselves, so many more associates will come onto the market who are more experienced, which will make it considerably harder for immediately completed Foundation Trainees (with less experience than normal) to get jobs at any level that they’d hoped for before.
It is worth remembering that many of these guys are carrying a significant six figure debt out of Dental school.
This situation takes me back to my elective study in Dallas in 1993, when most of the Dental students in America were telling us that they’d have to work as Hygienists for a while before they got a job as a ‘proper Dentist’.
2) The second group are the Associates. If what I suggested above comes to pass and there becomes more Associates on the market, not less, then normal market forces will apply and the value of the majority of Associates will decrease.
There will be some significantly difficult conversations between Principles and Associates to be had, as the turnover and therefore profit of Dental Practice businesses decreases (at the very least for a while anyway).
3) The practice Principles, but these split into different groups: 3A- relatively proven Practice principles who are sitting on a big lump of cash and are able to ride out (at least for a considerable period of time) the stormy waters that we find ourselves in. These guys will still be here at the other side and will probably be in the position of most authority. 3B- New owning or young Practice Principles who are carrying heavy debt to get their business going. These guys will find it tough and hard but are probably battle-hardened in the start of their business careers to be able to screw things down and live on a bit less, and I believe the majority of these guys will make it work and see the showboating, high-living, mortgaged their shiny lifestyle type of Practitioner (we all know who these guys are). These guys tend to keep less in their bank and more ‘on the road’, any significant reduction in turnover here will cause a problem to them and therefore to their staff and Associates.
Amidst a group of Principles above were the guys who are planning to ‘exit’ within the next three-four years.
People who were running on the back of the Corporate coattails, trying to get their Practice to a level of turnover which would allow the Corporates to buy (I am reliably informed that one of the main and most cash solid Corporates will now only buy practices in England over 1.5 million pound turnover).
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility at all that there will be a glut of Practices on the market and the price will be driven down and down.
And so, welcome to ‘the new world’ (my view of it in any event and I’m happy for you to slap this back in my face if it’s all completely different by January).
For me, I tried retirement both during the sabbatical times that I had off work and, in the lockdown, and it’s not for me.
I’ve said here before many time and I’ll say it again, I would really like to be working in Dentistry when I’m 85 years old, so as long as I can batten down the hatches and stay around in some form or another that will be fine for me.
Blog Post Number - 2343
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